![]() How close interest rates get to those levels will depend on whether alternative scenarios involving persistently higher government debt and deficit or financial fragmentation materialize.Ĭhapter 3: Coming Down to Earth: How to Tackle Soaring Public Debt Overall, the analysis suggests that once the current inflationary episode has passed, interest rates are likely to revert toward pre-pandemic levels in advanced economies. To mitigate the uncertainty that typically surrounds estimates of the natural rate, the chapter relies on complementary approaches to analyze its drivers and project its future path. Chapter 2 aims to study the evolution of the natural rate of interest across several large advanced and emerging market economies. The natural rate of interest-the real interest rate that neither stimulates nor contracts the economy-is important for both monetary and fiscal policy it is a reference level to gauge the stance of monetary policy and a key determinant of the sustainability of public debt. Chapter 4 studies how such fragmentation can reshape the geography of foreign direct investment FDI and how it can affect the global economy.Ĭhapter 2: The Natural Rate of Interest: Drivers and Implications for Policy Supply-chain disruptions and rising geopolitical tensions have brought the risks and potential benefits and costs of geoeconomic fragmentation to the center of the policy debate. Chapter 3 examines the effectiveness of different approaches to reducing debt-to-GDP ratios. Public debt as a ratio to GDP soared across the world during COVID-19 and is expected to remain elevated. The natural rate of interest is important for both monetary and fiscal policy as it is a reference level to gauge the stance of monetary policy and a key determinant of the sustainability of public debt. Inflation’s return to target is unlikely before 2025 in most cases. Global headline inflation in the baseline is set to fall from 8.7 percent in 2022 to 7.0 percent in 2023 on the back of lower commodity prices but underlying (core) inflation is likely to decline more slowly. ![]() In a plausible alternative scenario with further financial sector stress, global growth declines to about 2.5 percent in 2023 with advanced economy growth falling below 1 percent. Advanced economies are expected to see an especially pronounced growth slowdown, from 2.7 percent in 2022 to 1.3 percent in 2023. I am confident that Attila Belvon’s team will also hold their own against the exceptional list of contenders this time and will delight the Hungarian supporters with some memorable football.The baseline forecast is for growth to fall from 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.8 percent in 2023, before settling at 3.0 percent in 2024. Hungary’s Under-17 men’s team has qualified for two of the four most recent final tournaments at this age group, progressing to the knockout stages on both occasions. If 17 and 18-year-olds are entrusted with playing time, it’s not rare for them at that young age to become key members of their senior sides. Talented players need to be given an opportunity as soon as possible to prove themselves at senior level. The development of young footballers is of particular importance to the Hungarian Football Federation. I am delighted and honoured to welcome the participants of the UEFA European Under-17 Championship to Hungary. I wish the best of luck to the 16 competing teams. I want to thank the host association and their president Sándor Csányi for their hospitality and outstanding work in preparation for what promises to be another tournament to remember. And let’s not forget that the winners of this season’s UEFA Europa League will also be crowned in Budapest just two days before the end of this tournament. ![]() The Hungarian Football Federation (MLSZ) has been a fantastic host of UEFA events in recent years, staging a number of prestigious events, including games at UEFA EURO 2020, the 2020 UEFA Super Cup, the UEFA Women’s Champions League final in 2019 and the 2021 UEFA European Under-21 Championship final tournament, co-hosted with my native Slovenia. It is a first chance for the upcoming generations to test themselves against their European peers, showcase their talents on the international stage and compete for European silverware. These finals are a unique landmark in any young player’s career. Welcome to Hungary for the 2023 UEFA European Under-17 Championship final tournament.
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